In 2025, the global silver market is projected to experience its fifth consecutive year of production deficit, as reported by the Silver Institute. This deficit, expected to reach 117.6 million troy ounces and reflects a persistent imbalance where demand continues to outstrip supply.

The global silver market is on the brink of a critical supply-demand imbalance in 2025, with a substantial deficit driven by surging demand from the electronics sector. Electronics will remain the largest consumer of silver in 2025, driven by its critical role in AI chips, 5G infrastructure, and consumer devices like smartphones and laptops.

Other sectors, such as solar panels and electric vehicles, along with physical investment in bars and coins, add to the intense demand pressure.

The scale of the 2025 deficit suggests silver prices could soar well beyond current levels. In 2024, silver averaged ~$28/oz, but historical precedents, like the $50/oz peak in 2011 during a smaller deficit, point to a potential surge. With electronics leading demand and reserves dwindling, prices could climb to $50–$70/oz or higher by 2028.

Higher prices may encourage increased recycling or substitution in electronics, potentially easing the deficit slightly. However, new mine production won’t ramp up quickly enough to offset the shortfall by 2025. Silver’s fundamentals, driven by its indispensable role in technology, position it as a compelling opportunity in a supply-constrained market.

The numbers do not lie:

• Global Silver Demand (2025): 1,200 million ounces (1.2 billion ounces).
  • Electronics: 250–300 million ounces (30–35% of demand).
  • Photovoltaics (Solar): 120–170 million ounces (15–20% of demand).
  • Electric Vehicles (EVs): 90 million ounces (~7.5% of demand).
  • Physical Investment (Bars, Coins): 360 million ounces (~30% of demand).
• Global Silver Supply (2025):
  • Mine Production: 844 million ounces.
  • Recycling: 180–200 million ounces (average ~190 million ounces).
  • Total Supply: 844 million + 180 million = 1,024 million ounces (low-end recycling); 844 million + 200 million = 1,044 million ounces (high-end recycling).
• Deficit Calculation:
  • Demand – Supply = 1,200 million – 1,024 million = 176 million ounce deficit (low-end recycling).
  • Demand – Supply = 1,200 million – 1,044 million = 156 million ounce deficit (high-end recycling).
  • Deficit Range: 156–176 million ounces (~18–21% of mine production; ~15% of total supply).
• Price Impact:
  • 2024 average price: ~$28/oz.
  • Deficit (15% of annual supply) and depleting reserves (1.2 billion ounces in 2024) suggest a price surge.
  • Historical precedent (2011: ~100 million ounce deficit → $50/oz) supports $50–$70/oz by 2028, with potential for higher spikes if deficits persist.